Bangalore Investment：Can India, Micro Circular, and Bonus still buy it？I asked the fund manager to chat
Is there a bubble in the Indian stock market?
On December 4, the Indian stock market reached a record high. The Indian Sensex30 Index has increased by more than 8%this year, the increase in the past ten years, and has been recorded in the past eight consecutive years.
The Indian stock market Chang Niu envied A -shareholders, but few people knew that the Mumbai Exchange was established in 1875.In 1875, a statement was "the first year of Guangxu of the Qing Dynasty".
Many people’s impression of India only stays on fragmented information such as Bollywood, software outsourcing, and surnames. The development of the Indian capital market includes even India, and domestic investors are not familiar.
Liu Weilin explained the characteristics of the Indian market from three perspectives:
1. Fundamental aspects
· India’s economic development stage must be behind India for one or two decades, and it is still in the stage of high -speed development.
· Compared with other BRICS countries, India’s own resources are relatively scarce. The advantageous industries are relatively weak in finance, information technology, consumption and energy, and the manufacturing industry is relatively weak.Some low -end industries.
· India’s demographic dividend advantage is very prominent.
India’s population has exceeded 1.4 billion, and the average age is only 28 years old. The population structure presents a pyramid shapeBangalore Investment. Whether it is the proportion of labor or raising ratio, India’s population structure is very healthy.
It is estimated that by 2035 to 2040, India’s proportion of labor will reach a high pointUdabur Wealth Management. Prior to this, India has huge labor reserves and has the potential to relay India to become the next high-speed country.
· From the perspective of education, India has made significant progress after 1995. The bad habits of the surname system have gradually improved, and the admission rate of higher education in India has been 6-7 times in the past ten years.Bangalore Wealth Management
· India’s labor cost is still very cheap, and the salary of an IT engineer in India is about one -sixth of the wages of British engineers.
· India is an English -speaking country, and the exchange with Western countries is very smooth.
· Modi’s policy plays a positive role in the Indian economy, and the international environment in India is also more favorable, and it is far from international relations.
2. In terms of capital flow
· From 2003 to the present, foreign investment has basically maintained a net inflow, but the current outflows in 2022 are more obvious, and the reason may be related to the Fed’s interest rate hike.
In addition to foreign capital, India’s domestic capital is also constantly influx, and India’s domestic investors have confidence in India’s economy.
· In the second half of this year, foreign capital flowed slightly. Behind the US debt yields, the yield of US debt was high, which had a rainbow effect on emerging market funds.But considering that the Fed’s interest rate hike is nearing its end, follow -up funds may return.
3. In terms of valuation
· At present, the long -term PE of the Indian stock market is more than 20 times. It is not expensive in the past five years. It is not expensive, but it is really not cheap.
· In recent years, except for the Indian stock market below twice the standard deviation due to the epidemic in 2020, the rest of the time is basically difficult to fall below the double standard deviation.
Overall, Liu Weilin believes that India’s economy and stock markets are healthier and there are not much bubbles.
Questions about Indian funds
Why can the Indian stock market achieve long cows in the past 20 years?
Liu Weilin mentioned that this is related to corporate profit and investor structure.
The Mumbai Exchange in India was established in 1875. The design of the capital market was drawn from the developed markets in the West.
Moreover, the main body of the Indian stock market is mainly institutional investors. Except for non -exchanges shareholders, institutional investors account for more than half.
Of course, the stock market can rise steadily, and the core support comes from economic fundamentals.
Since 2002, the average growth rate of GDP in India has been around 7%, ranking among the world’s major economies, and corporate profit income has continued to increase.Although India’s inflation level is about 5-6%, the inflation pressure is not great than the economic growth rate.
If you want to invest in India, the next thing you need to pay attention to is the Indian election next April.
Liu Weilin believes that Modi’s support rate is still at a high level. The public recognizes his governance ideas and governance ideas, and the probability of re -election is relatively high.
But take a step back, even if Modi is not elected, it will not affect India’s long -term development in the future.Because the development trend of history is irreversible, if Modi is elected, it is also because the public recognizes the development concepts and policy ideas of competitors.
"From the current perspective, the probability of this risk event is not high, but if there is really a black swan, it will be a good investment opportunity."
There are currently only two funds that track the Indian market in China: "ICBC Credit Suisse India’s RMB" and "Hongda Indian Stocks",
The difference between the two funds is that ICBC is just the FOF fund. Tracking CITIC Securities’ India ETP index. Holding is the overseas Indian theme ETF.The scale and trading volume of ETF determine the weight.
Hongda is just an active fund and invests directly in Indian stocks.
Regarding the gap between the fund’s net worth curve and the performance benchmark, Liu Weilin explained that in addition to the interference of the exchange rate factors, a large amount of funds in a short time will also cause the fund’s net worth and the performance benchmark.
For example, whenever the Indian stock market rises rapidly, it will attract investors to purchase a large number. However, it takes a few days to really invest in foreign ETFs due to exchange exchange and a series of processes. This time difference will leadNot to the index.
In addition, the management costs and custody fees of the two funds are not cheap, which involves the particularity of QDII operations.
The domestic index funds have a mature mechanism, but a QDII is completely different from the original mechanism from the previous research, distribution, valuation, transaction, settlement, and accounting. As a pioneer, many pits must be stepped on.
"For example, in the early stage, we need to consider whether to go directly to India to open an account, study the regulatory system and laws and regulations of India, deal with exchanges in various markets, and deal with overseas transaction opponents.
At the level of transaction, how to invest out domestic money, how to calculate the exchange rates of different countries, and how to reflect in the cost of investor, similar to these valuation issues, positions, cost confirmation issues, system architecture problems, system architecture problems, Are all new problems, see the tricks."
Therefore, compared to individual investors to open accounts and exchange foreign exchange, consider various restrictions on overseas investment, and worry that the money invested cannot be returned. QDII can indeed save time and energy for investors.Essence
Is the microcroleen -off stock overheated?
In the second half of this year, the fire of the microcymelona has been burned from the motherboard to the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Let’s pull the data and find out in surprise,
A shares actually have such a strong index. In front of microcrory stocks, even Nasdaq is compared, not to mention the CSI 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.
In the past ten years, the microcyllic index has risen 18 times, 42%annualized, and 48%of the largest retreat in history.
During the same period, the CSI 300 increased by 42.8%, with an annualization of 6%, and the largest retreat of history was 46.7%.
Why is Micro Circular stock so strong this year?
Liu Weilin mentioned that the microcyllic index has its own reversal effect. Once a certain stock rises to a certain range, the index will remove the stock and wait until the valuation falls and then re -incorporate.This method of preparation is like opening plug -ins, and the ordinary index is difficult to win.
In addition, this year’s market environment has exactly provided a restless soil for micro -cycling stocks.
In the first two years, the core assets rose too much, the road to repayment was long, and funds were unwilling to flow into institutions’ heavy stocks.
In comparison, the content of the microcymelona stocks is very low. In this stock market, microcrory stocks are more likely to be fired.
The "traditional skills" of the Indian capital market are prone to overheating or too cold. Although the microcroleeny stocks have an overheating trend (such as the hype of the hype overflowing to the Beijing Stock Exchange), Liu Weilin judges that the situation of the small and medium market value style may continue for a while for a while for a whileEssence
Because the stock game cannot see any signs of improvement, unless the performance of large -cap stocks reverses.However, in the process of sustainable economic grinding, it is not realistic to improve the profitability of enterprises.
In the future, judging whether A shares will have style switching, you need to pay close attention to two indicators: one is whether there are incremental funds to enter the market, and the other is whether the policy has exceeded expectations.
Can I still buy the bonus?
As for the dividend style, Liu Weilin said that he has been optimistic for a long time.
The reason is easy to understand.
High -scoring stocks are equivalent to a short -term asset. In the context of asset shortages, it is a very good choice to provide a 5%dividend.
Especially as the Indian economy enters the stage of high -quality development, the risk -free yield may continue to decline, and the value of high -scoring stocks is becoming more prominent.
In addition, most of the high -scoring stocks are concentrated in the resource -based or mature industry, and the supply of such enterprises is relatively limited.
Resources are naturally scarce. In the context of carbon neutrality, resource -based enterprises cannot randomly increase capital expenditures. Many cash have accumulated on the account, and they have the ability and willingness to make cash dividends.
"These stable business companies have higher dividend income than bonds, and shorter periods than growth stocks. This is why we are optimistic about bonus assets."
The A -share dividend assets are slightly different from the Hong Kong stock dividend assets.
Considering the premium between A shares and H shares, the same company is listed in the two places, and the price of A shares is higher than that of Hong Kong stocks.
If the same shares are divided into dividends, because the price of Hong Kong stocks is low, the dividend rate of Hong Kong stocks will be higher, and the dividend rate of investors can get higher.
Liu Weilin suggested that according to the different investment preferences, investors who are biased towards a steady style can consider using the dividend index as the bottom warehouse, and investors who prefer high risk and high return can consider Hong Kong stock technology sector, such as AI, intelligent driving, innovative drugs, etc.Essence
When does the lithium battery bottom out?
In addition to the above -mentioned Indian funds, Hong Kong stock dividends, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Fund, Liu Weilin also managed a fund to track the battery of new energy vehicle batteries.
Recently, the new energy battery sector reached a new low, and the decline in the year has fallen by more than 30%.
The price of lithium carbonate in upstream is an avalanche. From a high level of 570,000 yuan/ton, it has fallen straight down, all the way to 130,000 yuan/ton now, and the futures price has fallen below 100,000 yuan/ton.
Regarding the prospects of lithium battery, Liu Weilin bluntly stated that this industry has changed from a growth industry to a cyclical growth industry.
Although it still maintained a growth rate of 20-30%, and the valuation seminars fell to a very low level, the market began to suspect the growth of future. It was believed that the clearing process of the entire cycle was painful.
When can I see the inflection point?
No one can accurately estimate the market at the lowest point in the market.
The clearing of the cycle industry is often accompanied by the sharp reduction in production, suspension and even bankruptcy of small enterprises at the rear, while leading enterprises have a scale advantage and lower cost. If you can survive this stage, it will occupy more market share in the next cycle.Essence
Liu Weilin judged that the market sentiment sometimes moves towards the extreme of the cold. Now the room for the lithium battery sector may not be too big. Although the industry has not yet completed the clear, the stock usually responds in advance. Next year, the lithium battery may also be in the lithium battery next year.Have a chance.
What kind of assets are optimistic next year?
This year is the big year of index investment. As an index investment expert, Liu Weilin believes that the future index fund, as a large type of investment tools with a large type, is more and more popular with investors.
For ordinary people, the tools that can be used are already very rich. From industry -themed index funds in various industries to QDIIs that track different overseas countries, and then to various Smart Beta funds, they are enough to meet the needs of personal asset allocation.
If there is no clear judgment on the market, the fixed -based broad -based index is a good choice.However, fixed investment requires some tips, such as the level of more than a certain level of GDP growth as a target.
In the short while, Liu Weilin’s more promising varieties include the A -share technology sector, such as AI, innovative drugs, and intelligent driving.
In addition, it also includes the dividend style and small and medium -sized market value style, which is relatively optimistic about the Indian market and expresses cautious and optimistic about Japanese and Hong Kong stocks, but has a relatively cautious attitude towards U.S. stocks.
In its opinion, there are accidental factors for the toughness of the US economy’s expected, such as the stimulus of fiscal money to consumption, but the effectiveness of this stimulus is decreasing, and excess savings always have a day.
Now the default rate of US credit cards has begun to rise, and the negative impact of high inflation and high interest rates on the economy is "although late, but", and the US economy will not necessarily be so good next year.
Liu Weilin will participate in the 6th "Alpha Summit" co -sponsored by Wall Street Wen Wenwen and Sino -European Institute of Technology on December 17. Interested partners can register through the poster below.
Note: The investment view is for reference only. It has timely efficiency and does not constitute investment advice or benefit commitments. It does not mean that the future specific allocation direction of the product is.The fund manager manages and uses fund property in accordance with the principles of dedication, honesty, and cautious and diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund is profitable or the minimum return.The mentioned ICBC India Fund is a fund in the fund, and mainly invested in related funds (including ETFs) that track the Indian market abroad, and strive to achieve an effective tracking of the trend of the Indian stock market.Types, bond funds and currency market funds; the fund is a global securities investment fund. In addition to the need to bear market fluctuation risks similar to domestic securities investment funds, the Fund also faces special investment risks faced by overseas market investment such as exchange rate risks.EssenceThe fund has risks. Before investor investing in the fund, you should carefully read the legal documents of the product. Based on the comprehensive understanding of the product situation, the rate structure, the charging standards of various sales channels, and the appropriate opinion of the sales institution, choose the investment suitable for your own risk tolerance abilityThe variety is investing, and investment must be cautious.
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